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oa Modeling and Forecasting Environmental and Economic Risks of Enterprises in the Context of Natural Resource Management
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, 18th International Conference Monitoring of Geological Processes and Ecological Condition of the Environment, Apr 2025, Volume 2025, p.1 - 5
Abstract
The article explores theoretical and methodological foundations of modeling and forecasting environmental and economic risks of enterprises in the context of natural resource management. Through comprehensive analysis of scientific literature, five key theoretical approaches to defining environmental and economic risks have been systematized: resource-based, systemic, process-oriented, value-based, and strategic approaches, providing a holistic understanding of risk nature in sustainable development context.
A seven-stage algorithm for environmental and economic risk modeling has been developed, encompassing comprehensive data collection and analysis, risk identification, impact assessment, scenario modeling, mitigation measure development, implementation, and monitoring of effectiveness. Based on this algorithm, long-term forecasting until 2030 has been conducted using regression analysis.
The research presents mathematical models with high forecasting accuracy (R2 > 0.99) that predict: reduction of environmental and economic risks (from 15% to 50%), improvement in resource efficiency (from 10% to 45%), decrease in operational costs (from 12% to 45%), and mitigation of environmental impact (from 8% to 42%). The developed regression equations create a robust methodological foundation for strategic planning and risk management in enterprises.
The proposed methodological tools and modeling algorithm provide a systematic approach to environmental and economic risk management, enabling enterprises to make informed decisions in natural resource management while ensuring sustainable development and environmental responsibility.
