-
oa The Projections of the Number of Ice Days in Ukraine in the 21st Century
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, 18th International Conference Monitoring of Geological Processes and Ecological Condition of the Environment, Apr 2025, Volume 2025, p.1 - 5
Abstract
The temperature changes are the most well-known feature of climate change. Rising air temperature and associated phenomena during the warm season are actively studied worldwide, while the research of changes in low temperatures and the temperature regime of the cold season is given less attention. The Number of Ice Days (IDs) is the index proposed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. This index is defined as the annual number of days with a maximum daily temperature below 0°C. The analysis of IDs projections shows that the number of ID cases is irregular throughout the territory of Ukraine and strongly depends on the region. According to RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, by the end of the 21st century, a decrease in the number of IDs should be expected in all three research periods except for 2071–2099 under RCP 2.6, when the average ID values are expected to increase compared to previous periods. The highest number of IDs is observed and expected in the northern region of Ukraine, ranging from almost 75 days in the historical period to nearly 27 days in the far-term future according to the RCP 8.5 scenario; the lowest number is in the southern region, ranging from about 28.4 days in the historical period to 4.7 days in the far-term future according to the RCP 8.5 scenario.
