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oa Exploring the Interplay Between Urbanization and Hydrogeological Disaster Impacts in Italy
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, 5th EAGE Workshop on assessment of landslide hazards and impact on communities, Sep 2025, Volume 2025, p.1 - 5
Abstract
This study explores statistical correlations between the impact of hydrogeological disasters (HGDs) and 57 environmental and urban development indicators across Italian provinces. The analysis showed that the strongest relationships exist between HGD persistence and soil sealing in medium-hazard areas, particularly those exposed to medium flood and landslide risk. While strict development restrictions regulate high-hazard zones, medium-hazard areas remain more permissive, allowing continued urbanization. A dynamic analysis confirmed that in provinces hit by disasters, soil sealing in these zones increased by approximately 2% within three years after the event, mirroring pre-disaster trends. This suggests that high-impact events do not lead to significant policy shifts in land use. The findings reveal a mismatch between risk perception and actual planning strategies, indicating that medium-risk areas play a critical role in shaping disaster impacts. Current policies appear insufficient to mitigate long-term vulnerability, fostering a cycle where urban expansion in sensitive areas continues largely unaffected by disaster experience. The study underscores the need to re-evaluate land use policies to better account for the cumulative and persistent nature of HGD impacts.
