1887

Abstract

Summary

Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) is arguably the simplest method for forecasting production. For wells on steady decline, and particularly for fast and efficient forecasting at scale, its simplicity is also its strength: DCA is robust, fast, fully automated and easy to interpret. Still, simple does not mean easy - to get good performance the least-squares curve fitting routine should be modified. Care must be taken in data preprocessing, model construction and hyperparameter tuning. If done right, DCA offers great promise in automating and streamlining forecasting for many wells in the NCS.

© EAGE Publications BV
Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.202639021
2026-03-09
2026-02-15

  • From This Site

    /content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.202639021
    dcterms_title,dcterms_subject,pub_keyword
    -contentType:Journal -contentType:Contributor -contentType:Concept -contentType:Institution
    10
    5
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

References

  1. Arps, J.J.. [1945]. Analysis of Decline Curves. Transactions of the AIME, 160, 228–247.
     [Google Scholar]
  2. Bratvold, Reidar B. and Mohus, Erlend and Petutschnig, David and Bickel, Eric. [2020]. Production Forecasting: Optimistic and Overconfident - Over and Over Again. SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering, 23, 799–810.
     [Google Scholar]
  3. Kesten C.Green and J. ScottArmstrong. [2015]. Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence. Journal of Business Research, 68, 1678–1685.
     [Google Scholar]
  4. Se YoonLee and Bani K.Mallick. [2022]. Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling: Application Towards Production Results in the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas. The Indian Journal of Statistics, 84, 1–43.
     [Google Scholar]
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.202639021
Loading
Automated Decline Curve Analysis - DCA from a Data Science Perspective
Conference Proceedings 2026, 1 (2026); https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.202639021
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.202639021
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.202639021
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Most Cited This Month Most Cited RSS feed

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error