- Home
- Conferences
- Conference Proceedings
- Conferences
First EAGE Workshop on Assessment of Landslide and Debris Flows Hazards in the Carpathians
- Conference date: June 17-20, 2019
- Location: Lviv, Ukraine
- Published: 17 June 2019
-
-
Landslide hazard assessment in Vrancea seismic region (Curvature Carpathians of Romania): achievements and perspectives
By M. MicuSummaryThe Carpathians are the largest and the longest segment of the European Alpine system, while the Romanian sector represents the longest one (910 km, 54% of the total length and 40% of their total surface). The Romanian Carpathians may be ranked as mid-altitude mountains (90% below 1500 m), exceeding 2500 m only in the southern sector (maximum 2544 m). The landslides are representing the main present-day geomorphic process especially in the Eastern sector (loose formations of Palaeogene flysch are affected by a wide range of such processes). The Curvature sector (Vrancea seismic region), shows an increased landslide activity enhanced by the intermediate-depth seismicity. The mountainous flysch sector is characterized by the existence of large landslides, with a low frequency-high magnitude pattern and numerous reactivation sectors. The hilly molasse area is featuring very frequent but low magnitude landslides, forming large complex areas in which they associate with erosion processes, especially in form of sheet wash, rills and rarely gullies. There are two main triggers for the wide variety of landslides (single or multiple events): precipitation and earthquakes. Based on multiple (some typologically-different) inventories, different (climate-triggered) landslide susceptibility assessments have been performed, implying qualitative (geomorphic mapping), semi-quantitative (weighted overlay, spatial multi-criteria evaluation) and quantitative (logistic regression) assessments. The evaluation of earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility was performed following the Newmark Displacement approach. Changes in the triggering factors (and hazard zonation) have been evaluated based on future climate projections derived from the CORDEX project (WCRP) using the 2.6, 4.5. and 8.5 RCPs. All the results show that presently Vrancea seismic region fatures a high potential for developing complementary approaches which may be extended at the level of the entire Carpathian chain: fast mapping based on EO data, uncertainties analysis and quantification, landslide forecast, multi-hazard analysis and single to multi-risk assessment.
-
-
-
Assessment of Natural Hazards in the Ukrainian Carpathians
Authors O. Ivanik, V. Shevchuk, D. Kravchenko and K. HadiatskaSummaryUkraine is characterized by active natural hazards processes within different structural and tectonic and landscape-climatic zones. Landslides and debris flows are the major natural hazard in the Ukrainian Carpathians. Increasing resilience against landslide and debris flow hazard is a top priority for the Ukrainian government and national environmental agencies due to the high damages to people and infrastructure caused by these processes. Landslides and debris flows disrupt sustainable development of the Carpathian region and cause many accidents. Increasing human occupation of the attractive mountain areas over the past decades has increased the need to better understand the landslide and debris flows processes and to predict their formation. The integrated technique of modeling of natural hazards impact on the infrastructure has been proposed. It is based on the spatial GIS-analysis and numerical modelling. A better understanding of potential risk factors associated with technical, geological, and management aspects of infrastructure is equally important to minimize the risk of infrastructure failures.
-
-
-
From national to local debris flow modelling in Great Britain — challenges and perspectives
By R. CiureanSummaryThis work describes recent and ongoing research developed by the British Geological Survey (BGS) on debris flow modelling at national, regional and local scale. Conceptual models and approaches are outlined and discussed in light of their limitations and appropriateness for decision-support in land use planning, risk management or development action plans.
A national scale debris flow susceptibility model was developed using a GIS–based heuristic model. The model provides information on the potential for debris flow occurrence using properties and characteristics of geological materials The final susceptibility map registers scores from 0 to 110 and is classified into a five-point scale from A (i.e., debris flows are not thought to occur) to E (i.e., debris flows are highly likely to be present). The model accuracy is tested using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve in a representative area for debris flow occurrence, where 691 debris flows were mapped. A medium- to regional-scale debris flow susceptibility assessment was performed using an empirical 2D-model. Debris flow modelling at local-scale is of paramount importance to develop models and approaches to reasonably simulate these processes for impact and risk assessments.
-
-
-
Simulation of cascading mass flows in GIS: progress and challenges
By M. MergiliSummaryThe aim of this work is to learn about the capacities, but also the challenges connected to the modelling of high-mountain landslide cascades with the software r.avaflow, a comprehensive open source mass flow simulation tool. Thereby we use six case studies in Peru, Switzerland, and Iceland. The investigated chains of flow-like landslides were successfully reproduced with the two-phase and three-phase models of r.avaflow. However, the input parameters had to be empirically optimized for each single event in order to bring the model results in line with the observations. The use of such optimized parameter sets to events of different magnitudes remains a challenge. This is particularly important where threshold effects are involved. It limits the reliability of forward simulations for risk management. More back-calculated events would be required to derive guiding parameter sets which can be used for forward simulations. Further, equifinality issues and remaining uncertainties have to be considered. Therefore, parameter ranges and scenarios should be used instead sets of fixed parameter values. The resulting blurry information is less likely to be off target than sharp information, but less straightforward to interpret and to communicate to stakeholders. Besides additional parameterization and testing efforts, in the future r.avaflow should be extended by including the possibility to consider block sliding and flow transformations, and by interfaces with models for other processes (such as rock fall) and landslide initiation.
-
-
-
GIS tools application for landslides formation factors analysis (Transcarpathian region)
Authors S.B. Shekhunova, S.P. Siumar, O.P. Lobasov, E.O. Yakovlev, S. Meijer and S.M. StadnichenkoSummaryLandslides are among the most common exogenous geological processes that have developed in Transcarpathian region. Therefore, they were included in the list of hazardous geological processes being analyzed within the project "Improving Disaster Risk Reduction in Transcarpathian Region, Ukraine (ImProDiReT)" (grant №783232 for the competition UCPM-2017-PP-AG DG-ECHO).
In order to identify the main and derived geological factors that determine landslides propagation and activation in the Transcarpathia, 2 575 landslides of more than 3 300 known in the region were analyzed, with a total area of 360 576 sq. km.
Initial information for the factors analysis is represented by: 1) database and landslides inventory map for Transcarpathian region; 2) relief horizontals which are corresponding to the topographical background of scale 1 : 100 000 and 3) the tectonic disturbance map derived from a geological map of scale 1 : 100 000. Factors were represented in ArcView Spatial Analyst generated grids: relief and its derivatives (slope angles, exposure, relief dispersion (standard deviation), relief trend and its local component); the density of structural and tectonic dislocations. It was established that the landslides occurrence maximum falls at altitude of 320–640 m, at slopes with steepness of 8–20°, mostly exposed to the southeast, west, northwest and south. More than 60 % of all investigated landslides occur within one kilometer zone along structural and tectonic disturbances and up to 1.2 km from disturbances with azimuth 90–180°. The applied approach made it possible to establish the patterns of landslides propagation on the bases of processing a large array of primary cartographic information and to obtain probable boundary values for the landslides formation factors characterization. Established spatial patterns of landslides occurrence can be used for local predictions of landslides hazards and implemented in provisions to be developed in order to reduce the risk of hazardous processes in Transcarpathian region.
-
-
-
Focal mechanisms of natural and induced seismicity in the Carpathian region of Ukraine
Authors D. Malytskyy, O. Hrytsai, A. Gnyp, E. Kozlovskyy and S. KravetsSummaryUnderstanding source mechanisms of induced earthquakes is important to distinguish them from natural ones. The authors of the paper have developed a method for determination of seismic moment tensor using data from a small number of seismic stations. The use of only direct P-waves for the inversion reduces its sensitivity to inaccurate knowledge of medium model between the source and the stations and improves the reliability of the resulting tensor and, in such a way, our ability to distinguish between the natural and induced earthquakes.
The authors also propose a method for determination of extended source parameters (finite-fault solution) by inversion of wave field also from only direct P-waves registered by a small number of seismic stations. It enables to determine the distribution of slips along the fault, providing a valuable resource for investigation and better understanding of source processes, ultimately guiding to improved seismic-hazard analysis in the areas of induced earthquakes.
-
-
-
Mount Ilgaz Xirami Volcanic Debris Flow and Landslide. Posof, NE Turkey
More LessSummaryMain purpose of this research is to study lithology, structure and textural properties of volcanic debris flow formation, landslides, slope debris in the structural-active tectonic framework of Mt Ilgaz Area. Ultimate goal is to design sustainable Hazard Reduction Project which will also protect existing spectacular morphology as geological heritage.
Xrami earth piles (pillars) are proved to be extra-ordinary geological structures, formed in very thick volcanic debris flow unit. They have specific geometry, morphology and radial distribution in a deep oval shaped closed subsidence environment. Debris Flow is unique example of its kind, having uniform grain distribution texture and lithology. Remote Sensing of multi-spectral ASTER images provided textural data and by selective alteration patterns which used to uncover stratigraphy and obscure structural framework. In order to conserve Piles (pillars) against destructive external agents, essential criteria for geotechnical safety projects were decided in situ. Accepted as Geo-Heritage Site, to be conserved in Geo-Park statue.
-
-
-
Geologic and stratigraphic criteria for defining landslide processes within the Carpathians
Authors O. Ivanik, N. Maslun, M. Ivanik, N. Zhabina, Aida Andreeva-Grigorovich, O. Anikeeva and I. SuprunSummaryThe structure of the Carpathians geosystem contains information on the litho-facial, sedimentological, geodynamic, tectonic, paleogeographic history of the region development and those processes that took place during the Meso-Cenozoic. The main factors in the formation of shift-hazardous zones are related to the processes of geological reorganization in Early and Late Cretaceous, on the boundary of the Cretaceous and Paleogene, in Paleocene, Eocene, Oligocene and Neogene. Olisthostromes, mudflows, and landslides widely developed at the different stratigraphic levels. Considering diversity of the processes that led to the formation of the modern landscape, including shift-hazardous zones, a comprehensive systemic analysis was carried out. The stratigraphy serves as a basis for detection of landslide hazardous zones. Analysis of the events and processes is a key for determining the event-stratigraphic criteria of geological evolution.
-
-
-
Long-term modeling of mudflow processes activation within Carpathian region
Authors T. Chepurna and E. KuzmenkoSummaryThe purpose of the study is to verify already established and to identify new patterns in the factor influence of meteorological parameters and solar activity (as a trigger factor) on the mudflow activity. On the way of realization of the set goal the following tasks were solved: addition to the database of the temporal information; modeling of series of dynamics and their analysis using correlation, auto and cross correlation analyzes. In the extrapolation of the complex index of long standing mudflow activity (CIMA) was taking into account new regularities. Correlation and cross-correlation analysis revealed the logical effect of parameters of air temperature and precipitation on mudflow activation in certain solar cycles. Correlation coefficients for meteostation Rakhiv reached their peak values in the years of recorded mudflow activity. It was observed the complex interaction of meteoparameters and for the values of other meteorological stations, indicating the predominance of similar air masses and the presence of the effect of total exposure. Such influence is crucial for the development and intensification of mudflow processes in potential areas of the eastern and southeast mudflow hazard areas of the Carpathians.
-
-
-
Practical measures fo landslide risk mitigation in the Ukrainian Carpathians
Authors I. Kaliukh, O. Trofymchuk, G. Farenyuk, O. Ivanik and S. ShekhunovaSummaryOver 90% of the territory of Ukraine has complex soil conditions. Chernivtsi region located at the piedmont of the Ukrainian Carpathian Mountains is the smallest among 25 regions of Ukraine (its area is 1.3% of the whole territory of the country). Nevertheless, the landslides are significant there. There are approximately 1600 landslide sites. That is more than 9% of the territory (the highest factor in Ukraine). Landslides occupy more than 1500 ha of Chernivtsi city that is 10% of the city area. Local seismological station registers nearly 110-130 seismic events per year. 70-80% of the above events occur within 100 km radius and are of 2-4 earthquake intensity. Chernivtsi region belongs to the area of intensive heavy rains. Some rains last up to 7 hours and amount of precipitations can reach a month and a half norm. These anomalous parameters were connected with the complex influence of natural and technogenic factors: crossing the slopes of dense rivernet; seismological activity connected with 6 local earthquakes zones; active slopes deforestation during last decades of XX century (from 60% up to 25% and lesser); increasing the influence of global climate changes factors (heating, increasing of precipitations, flooding etc.). Principle new and additional factor of landslide activation within Chernivtsi region is increasing of seismic movements after abnormal rainfalls and flooding. In 1985 the “Scheme of anti-landslide structures arrangement on the territory of the city of Chernivtsi” was developed. In the “Scheme …” 31 landslide-prone and slipping slopes of Chernivtsi city are described, the possible sliding surfaces and engineering protection measures are specified, the stability coefficients for natural and “protected” slopes are determined. The engineering protection methods envisaged by the “Scheme …” can be divided into five groups as follows: (1) – shoreline stabilization; (2) - retaining structures; (3) - drainages; (4) -regulation of rivers and streams; (5) – surface-waters diversion. The “Scheme …” developers took the slope stability coefficient equal to one. Based on those data the landslide pressure was determined and the retaining structures were selected. The “Scheme …” analysis concerning the retaining structures types shows that the vertical planning and counter berms were proposed to be applied at all of 19 landslide areas. Moreover, the engineering protection was given a comprehensive approach and was carried out throughout the entire site. It is necessary to draw attention to some mistakes of the “Scheme …” developers, which were practically checked. In the “Scheme …” the landslides were divided into several ones, for example, at the Odeska Street the landslide was divided into two ones. In real life, namely in 1995, there was one continuous landslide. Accordingly, in practice the landslide masses depth was higher. The same occurred with the Dnister-Chernivtsi waterway. Because of the previous mistake of the “Scheme …” developers, the report authors corrected the maximum landslides thicknesses in the table towards the increase. That, accordingly, has led to the increase of landslide pressure value and anti-sliding engineering protection structures prices. The “Scheme …” envisages the counter berms and vertical planning arrangement for almost all areas, which may be connected with significant landslide masses depths and high values of landslide pressure.
-
-
-
Analysis of consequences of waste-slide at Lviv Municipal Solid Waste Landfill on May 30, 2016
Authors I. Savchyn and V. LozynskyiSummaryThe main purpose of this work is an analysis of consequences of waste-slide at Lviv municipal solid waste landfill on May 30, 2016, and prevent new waste-slide processes that could negatively influence the ecological situation in the region. To achieve this purpose was used UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) Trimble UX-5. In order to get actual information about landfill condition after waste-slide aerial survey out of UAV was done on June 11, 2016. Therefore, the orthophoto map and DTM of Lviv municipal solid waste landfill have been created. They were compared with the available data in October 2015. The borders and the size of waste disposal, the polluted area, and the waste-slide have been determined based on an aerial survey. Using digital terrain model (DTM) differences of waste disposal thickness and waste-slide have been determined and a fissure has been found which can cause a new slide. The represented algorithm can be used for the monitoring and analysis of different industrially dangerous territories. There is a high probability of repetition of such disasters, as there are no regulatory requirements for periodic control of geometric parameters of landfills in Ukraine. Therefore, for the effective planning, design and control of such parameters, it is necessary to develop a set of engineering and technical measures that will involve the use of modern geodetic methods. This complex will provide modelling of relief and structure for visualization and analysis of the state of landfills in general.
-
-
-
Technogenic failure on the Stebnyk deposit of potassium salts 30.09.2017
By I. SapuzhakSummaryA vivid example of dangerous phenomena caused by man-made causes is given - a collapse of the mine field of the mine №2 of Stebnyk field of potassium salt, which took place on September 29, 2017. Mentioned history of the extraction of potassium salts near Stebnika, approximate volumes of salt extraction, the global catastrophe that was caused by the activity of the mine in the past. The activation of local seismicity in the region is shown according to the data of the Carpathian regional seismic network, in particular seismic stations “Morshyn” and “Skhidnytsya”, and from 2017, and “Stebnyk” installed on the territory of the mine. The comparison of epicenters of earthquakes with the tectonic structure of the region is presented. The probable cause of the failure of the mine is indicated - a local tectonic earthquake, as well as a seismic hazard for many objects in the region, including “Polymineral”.
-
-
-
Landscape Indication of dangerous slope processes in the Chorna Tysa basin
Authors T Lavruk, S. Bortnyk, O. Kovtoniuk, I. Kravchuk and L. TymuliakSummaryThe results of the study of hazardous processess in the Chorna Tysa basin by the landscape indication method are given. The method of landscape indication based on the use of geomorphological, geobotanical, hydrological and other indicators is significant for identifying potential centers of dangerous slope processes, particular landslides, taluses and avalanches. The relief is considered as the main “landscape indicator” reflecting the combined effect of endogenous (tectonic, geological) and exogenous (space, climatic, hydrological, man-made) factors.
The main factors causing avalanches are natural – high-altitude, highly dismembered relief with steep slopes of various exposures, large amounts of snow accumulated in the fractured parts of the slopes and vegetation features. Man-made factors, in particular, deforestation on the slopes also have a great influence on landslides and taluses.
The scheme of localization of dangerous sloping processes in the upper reaches of the Chorna Tysa basin, and the routes for their study are given.
-
-
-
Monitoring of mine fields at Stebnyk potassium deposit area by a geodetic and geotechnical method
Authors I. Savchyn, K. Tretyak, S. Petrov, O. Zaiats and I. BrusakSummaryThe main purpose of this work is a monitoring of the possible current local geodynamic processes in the territory of the mine fields at Stebnyk potassium deposit area using precise tilt meters and precise static GNSS receivers. Tilt measurements were carried out to find the magnitude and azimuth of the maximum inclination of the territory. Using three precise tilt meters 47 underground collapses were registered on the territory during the period from June 11, 2018, to December 06, 2018. The greatest activity and intensity of underground collapses fixed from September 27, 2018, to November 11, 2018. Three cycles of periodic static GNSS measurements were carried out to determine deformation processes on the territory of mine fields at Stebnyk potassium deposit area. Using obtained data vertical and horizontal displacements and velocity of the territory were calculated. Vectors of horizontal displacement of the territory have different directions, but most of them indicate the northeast and southwest direction of movement. As a result of the analysis of the distribution of the vertical and horizontal velocity and tilt measurements on the territory of mine fields at Stebnyk potassium deposit area four main geodynamic zones of accumulation of epicenters of underground collapses, lowering zones as well as zones of compression and stretching was highlighted. The scientific novelty consists in the possibility of the realtime study of the spatial kinematics in industrially dangerous territories based on the results of tilt and GNSS measurements. The represented algorithm can be used for the monitoring of different industrially dangerous territories.
-