Continuous Resource Assessment Integrating Volumetric Analysis and Probabilistic Well Simulation

We propose an integrated workflow for evaluating continuous resources that is intended to bridge the varying analysis requirements through successive stages in the business cycle. All stages of the approach are fully probabilistic and transition smoothly from one to the next; each step encompasses and builds upon the uncertainty represented in the previous steps. Probabilistic assessment of in-place and recoverable hydrocarbon volumes is necessary to build an understanding of the hydrocarbon resource but it is rarely sufficient to support specific business decisions. The approach proposed here moves beyond a simple volumetric representation of the resource and builds multiple well simulations based on physics-based models of the reservoir. These simulations predict spatially aware well behavior within the play both in terms of ultimate recovery and hydrocarbon flow rates over time. In addition to standard volumetric inputs, these analyses require engineering parameters linked to specific development scenarios, such as lateral length for horizontal wells, number of fracture stages, and fracture half length. To be robust, the models need to incorporate both spatial variations in geologic and engineering inputs as well as uncertainty in the parameter estimates for a single location.