Basement heat flow is one of the most influential parameters on basin maturity. Although rapid progress has been made in the development of tectonic models capable of modelling the thermal consequences of basin formation, these models are hardly used in basin modelling. To better predict heat flows we have developed a multi-1D probabilistic tectonic heat-flow model, incorporating a variety of tectonic scenarios (including rifting, underplating and mantle upwelling). The model has been applied for a range of basin settings, and predicted temporal and spatial heat flow variations are well in accordance with observations on heat flow for specific tectonic settings. In the Mediterranean observed heat flow is markedly heterogenous, ranging from values from as low as 30mW m-2 up to 150 mW m-2, having major implications for basin temperature and maturation levels. Tectonic models for heat allow to asses geodynamic causes for these varations and aid considerably in constrining spatial and temporal variations in heat flow. In particular modelling results indicated that the interplay of rifting, underplating, back-arc extension, has resulted in much stronger temporal and spatial tectonic heat-flow variations than hitherto assumed.


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