The renewed exploration in the Azerbaijanese part of the South Caspian basin has resulted in only one commercial discovery out of the 14 structures that were drilled during the last 15 years. This presentation shows how a simple pseudo 3D Genex modelling demonstrates the sensitivity of the traps hydrocarbon charging to the relative timing of their formation (ie individual structure growth), and of the source rocks maturation and HC migration. Although this does not come as a surprise, the very rapid sedimentation rate and structural growth in the South Caspian Basin, make a critical requirement of a very accurate understanding of both their dynamics. The method has been applied on a basin scale for the two main source rocks: Maykop and Diatom, and the most prolific Pereryv/Fasila target; although it does not take into account all factors of success, it provides a ranking tool for the exploration risk associated with trap charging. Examples of application on a few structures are shown, which can explain respective exploration outcomes, both in terms of presence of Hydrocarbon, but also in terms of their gas versus oil nature.


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