A Stochastic Analysis of Value-of-Information Derived From Petroleum Systems Modelling

This paper proposes a methodology to assess the value added to a prospect assessment through information provided by basin and petroleum system modeling methodology. The effects of a more detailed petroleum system model on a prospect assessment are usually more difficult to evaluate than the effect of new 3D seismic surveys on exploration prospects since the information provided by a BPSM has primarily a basin- or a play-wide extent. In order to evaluate potential benefits of a BPSM consistently we start by studying and evaluating in detail the ability of BPSM to predict hydrocarbon accumulations in a known (benchmark) basin. Second, we evaluate and quantify the sensitivity and specificity of this information in order to have a probability measure that could be generalized. Third, we apply such measurements to the assessment of the studied prospect in an analogue basin in order to calculate the revised geological chance of success. Fourth, we evaluate the impact of this revision on NPV through a full cycle analysis using a hypothetical development plan of the prospect to come up with a Value of Information assessment.