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Observations from Systematic Depth Conversion Reviews - Biased Depth Estimates and the Impact on the Drilling Portfolio
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, 78th EAGE Conference and Exhibition 2016, May 2016, Volume 2016, p.1 - 5
Abstract
Summary
Systematic well reviews are essential for improving on future drilling performance. The accuracy of depth prognosis results has being analyzed in detail using an extensive dataset; 253 recently drilled petroleum wells in the Netherlands. The outcome reflects uncertainties in seismic interpretation and –more importantly- velocity models. The data indicates that the predicted depth at reservoir level shows an uncertainty of 1.2% (1 sigma). Also a clear bias towards predicting too shallow is evident from the dataset. A possible explanation based on the mechanism of selection bias is being presented.
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