An Assessment on the Recent Seismicity in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

A statistical assessment of recent seismicity in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey, is made by using seismotectonic b-value and precursory seismic quiescence Z-value. The catalogue including 28,420 earthquakes between 1970 and 2016 is used. Using the Reasenberg declustering process and the earthquakes with MD≥2.7, 51.4% of the events are removed and so, 13,815 events are used for a quantitative evaluation of seismic quiescence in the NAFZ in the beginning of 2016. Completeness magnitude is estimated as 2.7. Resulting values show that significant anomalies are observed in both b- and Z-values in some parts of the NAFZ. The larger b-values are calculated in Silivri, Black Sea, Izmit and Düzce whereas the smaller b-values are estimated in the western, the eastern and the middle parts of the NAFZ, covering Gulf of Saros, Gelibolu (Çanakkale), Ismetpaşa segment, Bingöl, Erzincan, Amasya and Çankırı. Several quiescence regions in and around Tekirdağ, Gulf of Saros, İstanbul, Marmara and Black Sea, İzmit, Düzce fault, Mudurnu, Çankırı, Amasya are observed. Consequently, the same regions including Gulf of Saros, Çankırı and Amasya where the smallest b-values and the largest Z-values are obtained may give important evidences to reveal the future earthquake potential in the North Anatolian Fault Zone.