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Importance of Conceptual Geological Model in Probabilistic Field Assessment
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, GeoBaikal 2018, Aug 2018, Volume 2018, p.1 - 6
Abstract
Appearance of probabilistic geological models has created an impression that one of the oldest and the most common problems of deterministic modelling - failure of initial assessments - is solved. Indeed, probabilistic model considers a large set of possible realizations of the deposit geology, and, in the perfect world, the range of uncertainty should be narrowed with obtaining new data. However, a new well often brings surprises: either it widens the uncertainty interval, or moves it beyond the initial distribution. Repetition of such cases leads to disappointment in probabilistic models. Should not we stop using them? Analysis of successful and unsuccessful probabilistic case studies shows that one of the reasons that can critically affect the results of assessment and the project as a whole is the choice of conceptual geological model for the object. The paper considers the existing views on the idea of conceptual model and suggests an updated interpretation of it. In the context of probabilistic modelling, the creation of a conceptual framework is an integral part of uncertainty analysis and decision making. And the correct consideration of all possible geological concepts makes it possible to reduce the number of “black swans”.