Climate Change: Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclones behavior in the Context of the Global Warming

The climate change and especially the global warming environment in recent years bring many questions related to the numerous disasters caused by tropical cyclones (TC). The numerical study of the regional cyclogenesis dynamics based on a low parametric nonlinear model (LPNM) is continued. The model uses a system of coupled nonlinear differential equations for the maximum wind velocity and ocean surface temperature in the TC zone. Within the framework of LPNM, the generation of four powerful atmospheric vortexes with a diverse temporal dynamics during the active season in a specific area is considered. The TCs in the nonstationary background environment with lifetimes 7 - 16 days are obtained. In simulations the variability of the wind velocity and ocean’s surface temperature, as well as other effective sources of disturbances were taken into account. In the context of the global warming, the numerical calculations show TCs amplification, when the ocean surface is heated up to 0.5°C - 1°C. Therefore, maximum wind velocity in RLSTC increases sharply, the duration of the development stage also increases and the TCs move to a higher category. These facts coincide with the results received from LPNM simulations, recent registered meteorological data and environmental observations.