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Analysis of long-term annual water runoff variability of the Desna River
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, 15th International Conference Monitoring of Geological Processes and Ecological Condition of the Environment, Nov 2021, Volume 2021, p.1 - 5
Abstract
The paper presents the results of the analysis of the long-term annual water runoff variability of the Desna River. To conduct the study were used average annual water discharge (Chernihiv stream gauge) for the period 1895–2020, that is the duration of the series was 126 values. The long-term changes in river water runoff are due to the multifactorial process of its formation and are a random process that is constantly changing over time. Verification the series for homogeneity by parametric criteria showed that they are homogeneous. Calculations of statistical for the entire initial time series and for segments of the studied sequence - for individual 30-year periods (consecutive and 15 years overlap) showed that the most stable are the norm and coefficient of variation. The difference integral curve of annual water discharge testified to the presence of water runoff cycles. The application of autocorrelation and spectral analysis allowed to identify the duration of cycles in the long-term variability of the average annual runoff of the Desna River. The autocorrelogram is traced multiple repetition of 25-year and 36-year cycles, the spectrogram - 11–14 and 19–24 years. Their joint analysis allowed us to identify a mutually confirmed cycle of 24–25 years.