1887
Volume 38, Issue 12
  • ISSN: 0263-5046
  • E-ISSN: 1365-2397

Abstract

Abstract

Conventional exploration for oil and gas is based on the play concept, which puts a prospect into the regional geological context and allows selection of which areas or licences to choose and how to rank prospects. This is traditionally done by mapping the critical elements that constitute a play such as source, reservoir and seal, and then stacking them, which results in a mosaic of segments with similar common risk. However, this method does not distinguish between areas that have little data and therefore high uncertainties from areas with identified risks and therefore less uncertainty. This is the case because uncertainties are not appropriately taken into account in play element mapping. We propose an innovative method that quantifies and visualizes uncertainties of individual play elements using the principle of information entropy. The play fairway maps generated by this method can easily be updated by using principles of Bayesian inference, which in turn allow value of information calculations. With this approach, it can be estimated how much additional well or seismic information will impact play size, yet-to-find volumes, and prospect ranking.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.3997/1365-2397.fb2020087
2020-12-01
2024-04-26
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

References

  1. Conroy, M.J. and Peterson, J.T.
    [2013] Decision Making in Natural Resource Management: A Structured, Adaptive Approach. Wiley-Blackwell, Hoboken, NJ, 1 edition.
    [Google Scholar]
  2. Doust, H.
    [2010] The exploration play: What do we mean by it?AAPG Bulletin, 94(11), 1657–1672.
    [Google Scholar]
  3. Grant, S., Milton, N. and Thompson, M.
    [1996] Play fairway analysis and risk mapping: an example using the Middle Jurassic Brent Group in the northern North Sea, Editor(s): A.G.Dore, R.Sind-ing-Larsen , Norwegian Petroleum Society Special Publications, Elsevier, 6, 1996. 167–181,
    [Google Scholar]
  4. Hantschel, T. and Kauerauf, A.I.
    [2009] Fundamentals of basin and petroleum systems modeling.Springer, Dordrecht; New York.
    [Google Scholar]
  5. Hesse, S., Back, S., and Franke, D.
    [2010] Deepwater folding and thrusting offshore NW Borneo, SE Asia.Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 348(1), 169–185.
    [Google Scholar]
  6. Lottaroli, F., Craig, J. and Cozzi, A.
    [2017] Evaluating a vintage play fairway exercise using subsequent exploration results: Did it work?Petroleum Geoscience, 24, petgeo2016–150. 10.1144/petgeo2016‑150.
    https://doi.org/10.1144/petgeo2016-150 [Google Scholar]
  7. MacKay, D.J.C. and Kay, D.J.C.M.
    [2003] Information Theory, Inference and Learning Algorithms.Cambridge University Press.
    [Google Scholar]
  8. Norwegian Petroleum Directorat
    Norwegian Petroleum Directorat [2019] Plays and method for calculating undiscovered petroleum resources.https://www.npd.no/en/facts/geology/plays/.
    [Google Scholar]
  9. Otto, S., Wilson, T., Lidgett, M., Rooke, J. and Robertson, F.
    [2007] Using custom-built GIS tools to facilitate estimation of yet-to-find hydrocarbon resources.First Break, 25. 73–78.
    [Google Scholar]
  10. Quirk, D.G., Howe, M.J. and Archer, S.G.
    [2017] A Combined Deterministic-Probabilistic Method of Estimating Undiscovered Hydrocarbon Resources.Journal of Petroleum Geology, 40, 217–248.
    [Google Scholar]
  11. Rose, P.R.
    [2001] Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures. Number no. 12 in AAPG methods in exploration series. American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Tulsa, Okla. OCLC: ocm47597345.
    [Google Scholar]
  12. Salvatier, J., Wiecki, T. and Fonnesbeck, C.
    [2016] Probabilistic programming in Python using PyMC3.PeerJ Computer Science, 2, e55.
    [Google Scholar]
  13. Sethian, J.A.
    [1996] A fast marching level set method for monotonically advancing fronts.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 93(4), 1591–1595.
    [Google Scholar]
  14. Shannon, C.E.
    [1948] A mathematical theory of communication.Bell system technical journal, 27(3), 379–423.
    [Google Scholar]
  15. Shell
    [2014] Play based exploration. A guide for AAPG’s Imperial Barrel Award Participation.https://iba.aapg.org/Portals/0/docs/iba/Play_Based_ExplorationGuide.pdf.
    [Google Scholar]
  16. Warburton, J., Iwanec, J., Lamb, J., Waples, D. and Wulff, K.
    [2017] Potential for Future Petroleum Resource Growth in PNG.Proceedings of the 2017 South East Asia Petroleum Exploration Society (SEAPEX) Conference.
    [Google Scholar]
  17. Wellmann, J.F., and Regenauer-Lieb, K.
    [2012] Uncertainties have a meaning: Information entropy as a quality measure for 3-D geological models.Tectonophysics, 526–529, 207–216.
    [Google Scholar]
  18. Wellmann, J.
    [2013] Information theory for correlation analysis and estimation of uncertainty reduction in maps and models.Entropy, 15(4), 1464–1485.
    [Google Scholar]
  19. White, D.A.
    [1988] Oil and gas play maps in exploration and assessment.AAPG Bulletin, 72(8), 944–949.
    [Google Scholar]
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/journals/10.3997/1365-2397.fb2020087
Loading
/content/journals/10.3997/1365-2397.fb2020087
Loading

Data & Media loading...

  • Article Type: Research Article
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error