1887
  1. Home
  2. Conferences
  3. Conference Proceedings
  4. 10th Congress of the Balkan Geophysical Society
  5. Conference paper

Abstract

Summary

The main reason of landslide activation is rising of groundwater, saturation by rain, water infiltration and snow melting. One part of landslides in Northeast Bulgaria starts after heavy rainfalls, as was evident during the last 20-year wet period. The interconnection between the landslides in Northeast Bulgaria, rainfalls and groundwater maxima is investigated by variations of discharge for spring near Kotel and groundwater levels in two dug wells near Balchik, precipitation from meteorological stations Sofia, Varna, Veliko Tarnovo and Kazanlak, and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The periods of maxima of precipitation, PDSI and groundwater time series are compared with the registered occurrence of landslides. Some part of landslides occurs after groundwater maxima, other part – after intensive short-time rainfalls without significant change of groundwater levels. It is necessary to analyze time series of precipitation and PDSI in order to provide comprehensive landslide forecast. The groundwater levels follow almost exactly the PDSI variations, while the short time intensive rainfalls are presented as significant spikes in precipitation time series. The hazard risk of landslides on the territory of Bulgaria should be estimated by the maxima of PDSI, real meteorological data from stations located near the Black Sea coast and inside the territory.

© EAGE Publications BV
Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201902610
2019-09-18
2024-04-26

  • From This Site

    /content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201902610
    dcterms_title,dcterms_subject,pub_keyword
    -contentType:Journal -contentType:Contributor -contentType:Concept -contentType:Institution
    10
    5
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

References

  1. Berov, B., Pl.Ivanov, N.Dobrev, P.Nankin, M.Krastanov
    [2011] State of the art for landslides along the North Bulgarian Black sea coast. Proc. of the Second World Landslide Forum, 3–7 October 2011, Rome, 97–112.
     [Google Scholar]
  2. Casty, C., Handorf, D. and M.Sempf
    [2005] Combined climate winter regimes over the North Atlantic/European sector 1766–2000. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, DOI: 10.1029/2005GL022431.
     https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022431 [Google Scholar]
  3. Casty, C., Raible, C.C., Stocker, T.F., Luterbacher, J. and H.Wanner
    [2007] A European pattern climatology 1766–2000. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382‑007‑0257‑6.
     https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0257-6 [Google Scholar]
  4. Chen, M., P.Xie, J.E.Janowiak, and P.A.Arkin
    [2002] Global land precipitation: a 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J. Hydrometeorol., 3, 249–266.
     [Google Scholar]
  5. Dai, A., I.Fung, and A. D.Del Genio
    [1997] Surface observed global land precipitation variations during 1900–1988. J. Climate, 10, 2943–2962.
     [Google Scholar]
  6. Dai, A., K. E.Trenberth, and T.Karl
    [1998] Global variations in droughts and wet spells: 1900–1995. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3367–3370.
     [Google Scholar]
  7. Dai, A., K. E.Trenberth, and T.Qian
    [2004] A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J. Hydrometeorology, 5, 1117–1130.
     [Google Scholar]
  8. Evstatiev, D., J.Evlogiev
    . [2013] Landslides along the Northern Black Sea coast between Varna city and Kavarna town (Bulgaria). Ecogeomarina, 19, 39–57.
     [Google Scholar]
  9. Jones, P.D., and A.Moberg
    [2003] Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001. J. Climate, 16, 206–223.
     [Google Scholar]
  10. Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R. et al.
    [1996] The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77, 3, 437–471. DOI: 10.1175/1520‑0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
     https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2 [Google Scholar]
  11. Kistler, R., Collins, W., Saha, S. et al.
    [2001] The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82, 2, 247–267.
     [Google Scholar]
  12. Mitchell, T.D. and Jones, P.D.
    [2005] An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 6, 693–712. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1181
     https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1181 [Google Scholar]
  13. Orehova, T., Pavlova, V.
    [2014] Groundwater drought in Northeast Bulgaria and the SPI index. Proc. XXVI Conference of the Danubian countries on hydrological forecasting and hydrological bases of water management, DOI:10.13140/2.1.4154.7529, 335–338
     https://doi.org/10.13140/2.1.4154.7529 [Google Scholar]
  14. Palmer, W. C.
    [1965] Meteorological Drought. Res. Paper No.45, U.S. Weather Bureau, Wash., 58 pp.
     [Google Scholar]
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201902610
Loading
Rainfalls and groundwater influences on landslides in Northeast Bulgaria
Conference Proceedings 2019, 1 (2019); https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.201902610
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201902610
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201902610
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Most Cited This Month Most Cited RSS feed

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error